USDA’s Econometric Report Is In: P+PB Campaign Delivers Measurable Results

Every five years, federal checkoff programs like the Paper and Packaging Board (P+PB) undergo an independent return-on-investment evaluation. It’s a requirement grounded in the Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform Act and reviewed by USDA economists to ensure that the program is delivering value to the industries that fund them.

Overall, the P+PB consumer education campaign increased or protected the consumption of four of the five paper grades in the program by a total of 1.2 million tons per year or 2%, from 2019 to 2023. The report analyzed annual data gathered from government and industry sources, representing five grades of paper manufactured (bond paper, printing and writing paper, kraft paper, paperboard and containerboard)—that fund the program.

The study was conducted by Dr. Harry Kaiser—a Gellert Family Professor of Applied Economics and Management at Cornell University and internationally renowned expert in the economics of generic advertising and promotion programs. Dr. Kaiser applied a USDA-accepted econometric model that controlled for outside factors like GDP, pricing and historical category trends, ensuring that the impact isolated was attributable to the P+PB campaign.

The findings speak clearly:

• The campaign had a positive and statistically significant impact on consumption of four of the five paper grades, with the exception of bond paper.
• Over the past five years, the industry spent $114.3 million on the P+PB campaign resulting in a new ROI of $13.96. That is, every dollar invested in the P+PB campaign returned $13.96 in profit for manufacturers and importers.

Dr. Kaiser has reviewed a lot of checkoff programs and is quite confident the ROI is there even as tons decline and costs increase. “The direct effects of this program to the industry are significant and the industry is better off as a result of P+PB’s program.

These are not assumptions—they are validated outcomes backed by industry and government data. And as we head into the renewal vote from July 14–25, these results matter.

This program isn’t just a marketing campaign—it’s a strategic industry tool, delivering proven ROI, protecting demand, and elevating paper and paper packaging in a challenging and competitive materials marketplace. If you haven’t yet reviewed the full report or the topline findings, I encourage you to do so. The data confirms the ROI of the campaign and the multi-sector investment confirms what we can accomplish at scale working across the forest products sector.